STATISTICAL MODELLING OF THE IMPACT OF MALARIA CONTROL INTERVENTIONS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Malaria remains a major public health concern in Nigeria and continues to
impose significant economic costs through reduced labour productivity,
increased healthcare expenditure, and constrained investment outcomes. This
study examines the short-run and long-run effects of malaria control
interventions and selected health indicators on economic growth in Nigeria
using annual time-series data from 1988 to 2024. The Autoregressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is employed to accommodate
variables integrated of mixed orders and to estimate both equilibrium
relationships and dynamic adjustments. Unit root tests confirm mixed
integration orders, while bounds test results indicate the existence of long-run
relationships among the variables. Short-run estimates reveal that a 1%
reduction in malaria incidence is associated with an approximate 0.35% increase
in GDP, reflecting immediate productivity gains. Life expectancy exerts a
negative short-run effect on output, while fertility rate remains statistically
insignificant. In the long run, the direct effects of health indicators are weak;
however, a negative and statistically significant error correction term confirms
rapid convergence to equilibrium. The findings provide empirical support for
the economic justification of malaria control interventions and underscore the
need for sustained financing and efficient allocation of health-sector resources
within Nigeria’s broader development strategy