Temporal Variability of Rainfall and Cholera Outbreak in Damaturu LGA Yobe State, Northeast Nigeria

Abstract

This study examines the influence of rainfall variability on cholera incidence in Damaturu, Yobe State (2010–2023) by analyzing trends in rainfall and cholera outbreaks. Using multi-stage systematic random sampling, five political wards were selected, and 384 respondents participated in the survey. Secondary data from meteorological records and hospital reports were utilized, and regression analysis was conducted to establish the causal relationship between rainfall trends and cholera cases. The findings reveal that rainfall significantly affects cholera outbreaks, with 38% of cholera incidence variations attributed to rainfall fluctuations. Increased rainfall, flooding, and poor sanitation exacerbate the spread of the disease, making certain wards (Abacha, Gwange Sabon Pegi, and Nayi Nawa) more vulnerable. The study recommends that meteorological and health agencies collaborate to develop a proactive early warning system for climate-sensitive diseases. Additionally, improved sanitation, mass media campaigns, and community sensitization should be prioritized to mitigate cholera risks and enhance public health resilience in Damaturu.