Beyond Conventional Sprawl: Crisis-Driven Urban Expansion and Rural Livelihood Collapse in Maiduguri, Nigeria

Abstract

Land conversion to urban uses threatens food security globally. In developing regions, it is exacerbated by rapid, unplanned urbanization. However, prevailing sprawl models, derived from stable contexts, fail to account for dynamics in conflict zones where displacement drives urban expansion. This study examines the concept of "crisis-driven urban sprawl" - a distinct form of urban expansion where humanitarian shock, rather than economic opportunity alone, accelerates land conversion. Assessing Maiduguri, Nigeria a city experiencing rapid urban growth due to Boko Haram insurgency the study uses mixed methods (household surveys, n=100; in-depth interviews) to examine perceived extent, drivers, and impacts of agricultural land loss. Findings reveal widespread conversion: 84% observed expansion, 78% confirmed direct conversion. Primary drivers: population growth (38%) intensified by conflict displacement and weak planning (26%). Impacts are severe: 82% reduced farmland, 74% decreased food production, 68% farmers displaced, 54% livelihoods "greatly affected." Critically, 70% land sales reflect vulnerability, not choice a key feature distinguishing crisis-driven sprawl from conventional urbanization. The study concludes that urban expansion in fragile states constitutes distinct crisis-driven sprawl, arguing for integrating political ecology and sustainable livelihoods frameworks into land-change models. Based on the findings, the study recommends the need to include crisis-sensitive planning, agricultural preservation, livelihood diversification and geospatial investigation to quantify precise conversion rates in future studies.