ASSESSMENT OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY AND HEAT RELATED DISEASES IN YOLA METROPOLIS

Abstract

This study assessed the effects of temperature variability on heat-related diseases in Yola Metropolis, Nigeria. Secondary data used for the study include maximum temperature data for 40 years (1985-2024) obtained from the Upper Benue River Basin Development Authority, Yola and reported cases of heat-related diseases and deaths (cerebral malaria, cerebral meningitis, cardiovascular diseases and heat stroke) were obtained from Modibbo Adama University Teaching Hospital, Yola (Former Federal Medical Center, Yola) for the period of 24 years (2001-2024). The data were subjected to trend analysis, correlation and regression analysis. Monthly pattern of temperature showed extreme heat between February and April, with March recording the highest average maximum temperature $(39.23^{\circ}C)$, before declining to a minimum in August $(30.67^{\circ}C)$. Correlation analysis showed that cardiovascular diseases $(r=0.847, p<0.01)$, cerebral meningitis $(r=0.756, p<0.01)$, and heat stroke $(r=0.759, p<0.01)$ were strongly and positively associated with rising maximum temperatures, while cerebral malaria showed a weak and statistically insignificant negative correlation $(r=-0.390, p>0.01)$. Regression analysis revealed that maximum temperature was a strong and statistically significant predictor of heat stroke $(R^{2}=.577, t=3.69, p=.004)$, cerebral meningitis $(R^{2}=.571, t=3.65, p=.004)$, and cardiovascular disease $(R^{2}=.718, t=5.05, p=.001)$. The findings affirm that temperature variability poses a critical public health challenge in Yola, intensifying disease burdens, especially among vulnerable populations. Based on these outcomes, the study recommends establishing a climate-sensitive disease surveillance system that integrates health and weather data for early warnings. It further suggests implementing seasonal health preparedness programs, institutionalizing climate-health risk assessments in public health planning, and launching community-based education initiatives to improve awareness and promote practical adaptation strategies.