Forecasting Forest Depletion in Afaka Forest Reserve, Kaduna State, Nigeria

Abstract

The rate of forest depletion in Afaka Forest Reserve is quite alarming. This study used Cellular Automata-Markov model to forecast forest depletion in Afaka Forest Reserve. LandSat TM of 1990 and NigeriaSat-1 of 2009 were used for the analysis. The datasets were orthorectified, therefore no need for Geometric and Radiometric corrections. However, the datasets were georeferenced. Supervised image classification was used to group the pixels into land use/land cover types. Forecast of forest depletion for 2028 was done using CA- Markov model in Idrisi Selva. Using CA- markov the result revealed that forest cover will decrease to 3019.54ha by 2028. The findings revealed that there is steady increase in the area occupied by sparse forest over time as a result of anthropogenic factors. Based on the key findings of the research, it was concluded using predictive models in forecasting future state of Afaka forest reserve in Kaduna state. Based on the results obtained the following recommendations were put forward to preserve the forest reserve: Geospatial techniques should be employed in monitoring forest resources. CA_Markov models should be used to forecast forest depletion because it adds spatial contiguity. Enforcement of legislation concerning indiscriminate felling of trees.